Greece Economy: Delicate balance in the ASE

In positive territory, but nervousness and "moderate" volume moves Thursday, the DG the ASE, following the "yes" in the medium and pending the enactment of the Implementing Act. Up to 2.40% gains in banks.
Back on the rise and spread CDS
The medium was passed, the backlog remains
On paper remain critical initiatives as more weight is focused on adoption of new measures. Expires today and the deadline for 400 million revenue from the sale of OTE as a first sign of intent to purchase and Troika.
And a new loan, the IKA for the payment of pensions
"Internal" loan 100 million from the Department of insureds PPC for 10 days gets the Foundation. In race services to collect revenue.

The probability of a Greek bankruptcy and greater debt crisis in the euro area remain the main causes of risk to the global outlook, says Fitch Ratings in the biannual report on trends in global economy.

As emphasized in the house, a disorderly failure of Greek would have resulted in a high volatility in the market, exercising strong pressure on states and the financing banks and the broader repricing of credit state of the eurozone.

He continues that the risk of transmission to other vulnerable countries in the eurozone and banking systems is important.

"For this reason, the resolution of the current debt crisis is a necessary but not sufficient to prevent a systemic threat to the eurozone."

Outside the eurozone, the U.S. venturing on their own debt crisis by disagreement on whether to raise their own state's debt limit. As stated in the past Fitch, expects to find an agreed outcome and the U.S. government will pay on time and in upright debts.

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However, any failure timely action may jeopardize the AAA status of the U.S. economy. A default by the largest creditor and issuer of the largest currency reserves, would be extreme and would threaten the still fragile financial stability in the United States and the world as a whole, especially while developing the debt crisis in the eurozone.

Even commented that in contrast to the problems faced by developed economies, developing grow at a robust pace and dynamic of their evaluations remain positive.

The Fitch foresees that developing economies in 2011 will experience GDP growth of 5.7%, as in 2012, which is lower than 6.8% in 2010, but much higher than the 1.9% expected for developed economies in 2011 and 2.3% in 2012.

She turned cold and cut off the gas to more than 300 industries

Neither the regasification port that President Cristina Kirchner opened 20 days ago on Escobar could change history. For the eighth consecutive year, the big industries are suffering a winter without gas.
Over 300 companies were left without power since Saturday, or got to be let alone consume the equivalent of "technical minimum" that allows them not having to close its production plants. The stop order was passed on Friday by the distributors that operate in different regions of the "heavy users", with consumption of between 10,000 and 130,000 cubic meters of gas. The directive included, as in these cases, the threat of "penalties" for that industry that does not comply with the restriction.
The restriction, which was confirmed by sources of four distributors and several business associations, reaches not only to contracts for gas "interruptible" but also "firm", whereby companies pay a higher price.
"The industry of the country is restricted to the technical minimum. Residential consumption remains high and unrestricted. And the cold is expected to continue throughout the week and maintained this until Monday," said one of the distributors. Of the 300 affected industries, about half are located in the metropolitan area. Among them are from major automotive and food, to textiles and mining. The Mega separation plants, and Cerri Refinor already had been a few weeks at least without producing technical and basic supplies for the chemical industries.
Anibal Paradiso, manager of Institutional Relations of Litoral Gas, confirmed the same situation in the province of Santa Fe: "The gas supply is guaranteed for all families. It is for this reason that we restrict the service to 100 percent for large users from Friday, and this measure will continue until we define Enargas. "
According to former Energy Secretary Daniel Montamat, restrictions on industries and power plants to be replaced by liquid fuel consumption is equivalent to between 12 and 13 million cubic meters per day. "The potential demand at present is 160 million cubic meters, but as it has pressed the real demand must be in 140 million a day", he said. During the winter months, demand for residential consumption more than 80 million cubic meters per day.
Local production of gas is around 100 million cubic meters per day, which should add about 7 million are imported from Bolivia, another 8 million who enter the regasification vessel Bahia Blanca and 10 million more from Escobar. The latter two cases, the main government's commitment to alleviate the shortage, provide a gas at a cost 5 to 6 times higher than that paid to local producers, a fact that increases the benefits that come from the national budget.

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Adaptations
"The situation is complicated and every one has adapted as he could," Alberto told Calsiano, Head of Infrastructure Department of the Union Industrial Argentina (UIA). Some have scheduled production shutdowns or ahead to the near certainty that this winter would be different from previous ones. Others, such as the carmakers, have installed storage tanks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
Can you get to affect employment? "Today, no suspensions, but would not be unreasonable, if this continues, at some point occur," said Calsiano.
Among the hardest hit industries include sugar and citrus, with a strong presence in Tucumán, Salta and Jujuy, where production has a strong seasonal bias between May and July. "Every day cutoff equal to the loss of 2 to 3 days annual production to be seasonal agroindustrial perishable commodities," wrote a letter to President tucumanas major business associations. There you are asked to ensure supplies for its industries to avoid "enormous social and economic costs" generated by "industrial stoppage." All they need is to supply one million cubic meters daily.

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The president of the Industrial Union of Córdoba (UIC), Ercole Felippa said: "We are very concerned, because in cases where production processes can not cut you must use alternative fuels, adding to the loss of competitive activity" .
The question that no industrial incentives, through tariffs, to a more rational domestic consumption. "Moreover, this subsidy will not be the most disadvantaged, for those paying the gas bottle more expensive," he said.
NUMBERS OF SHORTAGE
125
Million m3 gas consumption is estimated around the country during the winter months. About 100 million comes from local production and the rest is imported.? Destination: residential consumption has more than 80 million. The cuts to industries save between 12 and 13 million.
19,229
Megawatts Saturday at 20.06 reached a record high electricity consumption for the day of the week.? Stable situation: until now, no power cuts to industries, although imports from Brazil began.

When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait

On the morning of the second August 1990 Iraqi troops invaded the former ruler Saddam Hussein, the neighboring country of Kuwait. The world reacted in horror, the UN calls for the withdrawal. Without success. Five months later, war: The operation begins "Desert Storm" under U.S. leadership.

It is to advance against two clock in the morning in Kuwait, when Iraqi troops crossed the border. Against the armada of 100,000 troops with 300 tanks, the 25,000-scoring Kuwaiti army is powerless. "The streets will be fought, I heard machine gun fire and grenade explosions in the vicinity of my hotel and the American Embassy," an eyewitness reports over the phone. Within a day, bringing the Iraqis the small sheikdom military under control. The Al-Sabah ruling family fled.

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Saudi Arabia and Israel put pressure on


Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein (left) visits his troops in Kuwait shortly after the invasion (archive image from 02 August 1990).
But now comes the real conflict going on in earnest. The U.S., the dominant power in the Middle East want, Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein did not let the attack go through - even from fundamental considerations. Otherwise other rulers in the region could come up with the idea to imitate the example. American ally Saudi Arabia fears a landslide on Saudi territory and Saddam also urges Israel to expel the Iraqi leader in his place.

U.S. President George Bush, the father of the president, who later - in 2003 - will start the Iraq war, can be open to all possibilities. "We rule out no option," he says.

Emergency meetings worldwide

Worldwide emergency meetings to be convened. In New York meets the United Nations Security Council. He demands the immediate unconditional withdrawal from Kuwait and imposing sanctions against Iraq. Appeals of Kuwait's ambassador to the United States, Sheikh Saud bin Nasir al-Sabah to Washington. "We now have to ask for military aid the United States to intervene."

In Europe, there is dismay about the Iraqi invasion. At the same time, many people reject an American counterattack decisively. Meanwhile, rolled to the U.S. military machine. "The 82nd Airborne Division and other key units of the U.S. Air Force will now arrive in Saudi Arabia," Bush proclaimed.

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No approval for use in Libya

The resistance of the U.S. Congress against the military operation in Libya has reached a new peak. The House of Representatives in Washington, denied in a clear vote of approval for a resolution that would approve the ordered by U.S. President Barack Obama battle of the American armed forces against the regime of Muammar al Gaddafi explicitly for one year. 123 deputies voted for the resolution, 295 rejected the text.



Above all, the opposition Republicans rejected an endorsement of U.S. participation in the NATO mission. The template was introduced jointly by two prominent senators in Parliament, which Democrat John Kerry and Republican John McCain. But many Democrats also voted against the resolution, which called among other things as limiting condition that no American ground troops fighting in Libya are expected.

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Congress claimed the right to declare war



On the day before U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had tried to get many Democratic members in line. Many party members are angry over Obama's decision to have approved the military action in Libya does not advance by Congress. Like most Republicans, they argue that a president can use after the War Powers Act of 1973, the military only with permission from the Capitol or in the case of a "national emergency" in a conflict overseas.




Consequences of an air raid near the Libyan town of Benghazi


Without a green light, the Armed Forces not be in use longer than 60 days - the deadline was the case in Libya on 20 May elapsed. In a report to Congress on Libyeneinsatz the President claimed that the military use of very limited and therefore not as "combat" should be considered. In addition to the nearly 40-year-old law is often attributed only symbolic significance. Presidents of both parties have it in U.S. history, traditionally ignored or described as unconstitutional.

MPs against blockade of money



In contrast, MEPs rejected from a blockage of funds for military use. The parliamentarians introduced by the Republican proposal was shot down with 238 votes to 180. The template would be the latest in the failure of the Democrats controlled the Senate.

Datev new boss will Bitkom President

The chief executive of data provider Datev, Dieter Kempf is the new president of the IT industry association Bitkom. The members unanimously elected the 58-year-olds in Munich as successor to the longstanding association bosses August-Wilhelm Scheer, who did not compete again. Kempf since 1996 at the peak and was Datev Bitkom at least Treasurer. "I am grateful for the trust and gladly take on the responsibility to continue for the second largest German industry speak," said Kempf.

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The 58-year-old has been a member for twelve years, the Bitkom Board and is responsible for the issues of privacy and data security. Security is also a focus of the Bitkom Kempf will work: "People's confidence in the security of the Internet and in the protection of their privacy needs to be restored," he said after his election.


The organization represents an industry association for information technology (IT) and telecommunications claims to the interests of more than 1350 companies. Among them are the German branch of the industry giants Apple, Microsoft or IBM, companies such as Telekom and SAP, but also many small and midsize companies. Member companies earn annual revenues, according to Bitkom of around 135 billion euros and employs about 700,000 people.

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With twenty or thirty or walk around with a brace in his mouth - it looks stupid and not once does any good? Wrong!


Many adults suffer from irregular, or too closely spaced teeth. And fixed braces can correct that! This, incidentally, not only optical benefits. Crooked teeth can also dress up the poor and increases the risk for tooth decay and gum disease.



In addition, there may be problems with chewing or even come in breathing. In severe cases, the jaw is broken.


Those who opt for braces as an adult - be it for health or purely cosmetic reasons - has several treatment options to choose from. Incidentally, there is also almost "invisible" models.

The new trend: Interest rates increase

Beyond Europe and America will increase interest rates in many countries happily, sometimes for months. India and Australia drew their reins on monetary policy this week, two weeks ago China was higher interest rates.

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The Chinese central bank began the week before the current monetary policy rate hike round. On 19 October the central bank raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.56 percent. A justification for this move was the Fed does not, the first interest rate increase is expected for almost two years, but serve the purpose of taking the booming economy in the country to a little wind from the sails.



In comparison to the "old" economies in Europe and America, in fact, before China puts a considerable growth rate. GDP grew by 10.3 percent in the third quarter, the inflation rate was 3.5 percent, well above the target set by the Central Bank of 3.0 percent. Despite the rate hike came as a surprise two weeks ago, and it led to the currency and commodity markets to significant movements became more expensive dollar and pound, euro and key commodities slipped.




For China economists expect further rate hikes in the coming months. With such a high rate of economic growth threatens to overheat the economy. To avoid this, further rate increases are inevitable.



India and Australia

The current base rate increases from this week, even they have in India and Australia, the markets for obvious reasons not affected to the extent that China's rate hike two weeks ago. The global impact of the two economies falls significantly behind that of China.



In Australia, the central bank increased the interest rate to 4.75 percent. Unlike all other central banks of industrialized countries, the Reserve Bank of Australia in October 2009 had already tightened its monetary policy and began to raise interest rates again. There was reason for this: The country had recovered very quickly from the global economic crisis, the annualized GDP is currently considering to order more than three percent, the unemployment rate has stagnated at around five percent.



Now would be the rapidly rising profits of exporters and impending capacity constraints into account, said the central bank with now. The inflation risk is however currently classified as rather low. Before the beginning of 2011, the RBA does not raise interest rates so on.



Even in India, the central bank on Tuesday raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent now. However, the Reserve Bank of India does not want to slow down primarily to a current hot economy, but the curb out of control prices.

India: the untouchables want to power

Die traditionellen Parteien haben den Aufstieg dieser neuen indischen Politikerin nicht gerade mit Jubel aufgenommen: Schon zum dritten Mal hintereinander ist Kumari Mayawati an die Spitze des grössten Bundesstaates Uttar Pradesch gewählt worden. Ihr Wahlsieg gleicht umso mehr einem Erdbeben, als dass die Politikerin aus der niedrigsten Kaste, den Dalit, den sogenannten Unberührbaren, stammt.

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Their voting potential is huge: 40 million Dalits live alone in the state. And its program with promises to the poorest of the poor - it attracts. Even the wave of enthusiasm spills over to other states. The queen of the untouchables would like to conquer the whole country. And it serves as a kind of laboratory for Uttar Pradesh, a social policy that will lead out the situation of the Dalits in their outcast-being. First step: see to it that the proposed rates are observed in schools and in administration.


The rise of Kumari Mayawati is now constitute a powerful symbol of the caste system still dominated Indian society. Within a few years she became a multimillionaire by now and already ranked in the Forbes ranking list of the world's most powerful people ... Their critics, however they see as the calculating, authoritarian, ineffective and corrupt woman.


Anyway - she is preparing for larger: A Dalit, an untouchable at the top of the state - that would be a huge icon. A sign that finally the outcasts may well emerge from the shadows of society.

From Brussels nothing new for the Greek crisis

A good three hours to advise the euro finance ministers about the financial crisis in Greece. But the debate had little concrete to be heard: In a written statement has been omitted. The round will be continued next week - but then not in Brussels but in Luxembourg.


Andreas Reuter, HR radio correspondent Brussels


seem, at least at one point, the finance ministers to be ever agreed: "We have no decision to make, so that expectations can not be wrong," said Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, and Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the euro group, said: "We Today, all colleagues will bring the same level of information and try out different options so we come next Tuesday in Luxembourg to end as close as possible. " Also, the Finnish Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen should probably all agree: "Whatever is needed to achieve this: We must avoid the next financial crisis."


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Private sector should be involved


As bad as it is so. But there are already models for the rescue: ". We are committed to finding a solution in which a private sector participation is possible but I do not know how to do that," known by the Finnish Minister of Finance. For if indeed will just not stand again, only the taxpayers of Europe, but also private investors - for example, by the terms be extended from government bonds - then threatening danger: namely downgrade the rating agencies Greece again: from now CCC to D - that a sense of 5 - to 6 in the subject creditworthiness.

Greece privatized - the Telekom pays

In the struggle for a reorganization of state finances, Greece has entered the first substantial revenues from privatization proceeds. The German Telekom acquires a stake of ten percent of the Greek telephone company OTE. The Group pays claims to some 400 million €. The business is based on a so-called put option under which Greece Telekom could sell at any time ten percent of OTE. This was agreed years ago. The German company had already in 2008 and 2009 a first batch of a total of 30 percent of OTE shares at a price of 3.8 billion euros. With the new package, the proportion rises to 40 percent now.


Greece wants to sell more shares


In the past week, the government began in Athens in negotiations with Deutsche Telekom. "If the Greek government can exercise its put option, we will conduct ourselves in accordance with the contract, " had CEO René Obermann explained. With a view to a further ten percent of OTE's shares, which are still state-owned and for which the German Telekom has a kind of pre-emption, Obermann said: "We must now go into the conversations and sober look at what conditions this is possible or not. "


ZAGO Impressum


Greece would also sell its remaining shares in OTE to Deutsche Telekom like. This should help to achieve the planned privatization revenues of 50 billion euros by 2015. In this way, the high public debt should be reduced, which has driven the country to the brink of bankruptcy. However, many corporate investments are currently considered difficult to sell.


Privatization complicated by labor laws


Background deter all regulations and labor laws, the potential buyer. In many companies are still wholly or partly in the hands of the Greek state, can, for example at the moment hardly notices to enforce. But observers expect that it will fail to potential new owners without large incisions which lead the affected farms to return to profitability.

Above the clouds waving less profits

The international association of airlines, IATA has lowered earnings expectations the sector once again clear. The updated estimate assumes that the airlines will earn this year, an increase of four billion dollars. In March, $ 8,600,000,000 had been predicted in December and 9.1 billion U.S. dollars. If confirmed, the new predictions that would be a drop of 78 percent compared with the 18 billion dollars profit, which recorded the industry last year.

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IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani explained the strong correction of the forecast with the rising price of oil, the consequences of the earthquake and tsunamis in Japan and the impact of the riots in many countries of the Arab world. In March, the aviation industry's governing body for the current year, an average price of 96 dollars per barrel of crude oil expected. Meanwhile, the IATA's forecast of an average price of 110 dollars per barrel. "Every dollar increase will cost the airlines $ 1,600,000,000, " said Bisignani. This has the effect that will make this year 30 percent of the fuel costs for airlines - 2001 there were only 13 percent.


The consequences of the unrest in North Africa and the Middle East is particularly true of the airlines of the countries concerned. The airlines of the region are expected in this post only a profit of 100 million dollars - last year it was $ 900 million. In the Asia-Pacific region will join the IATA forecast to the impact of the earthquake and tsunamis in Japan noticeable.
Nevertheless, the region with an expected profit of 2.1 billion dollar continues the most profitable in the world for the aerospace industry. In particular the strong economic growth in China and India, the negative effects of disasters in Japan will be more than compensated.


Europeans feel debt crisis


European airlines, according to IATA this year expecting a profit of $ 500 million - after a gain of 1.9 billion euros last year. The debt crisis in several states would reduce demand significantly. The airlines in North America can expect far better yields. Tells you ahead of the IATA estimates a profit of $ 1.2 billion this year. Also would be a massive drop in comparison with the 4.1 billion dollars profit from the previous year.


Despite the poor earnings prospects, the industry expects a significant growth. The number of passengers is expected to rise, according to IATA this year by 4.4 percent over the previous year. In the cargo area is a plus of 5.5 percent expected.


In the IATA 230 airlines are organized according to the association handle the combined 93 percent of world air traffic.

Siemens: expensive divorce from Areva

The technology group Siemens has for breach provides a high three-digit million euro amount to his ex-partner Areva pay. Investors have already reacted.


In a generally weak market, the Dax lost title by almost one percent. The International Court of Arbitration Siemens muttered a repayment of 648 million euros plus interest on his former partner Areva nuclear power. Siemens had fulfilled its contractual obligations to the French in the framework of the Nuclear joint venture Areva NP is not complete, the group said, referring to the decision.

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Mostly Reversal

Siemens had recently received for the share of just over a third of the joint venture from Paris just over 1.6 billion euros. Chief Financial Officer Joe Kaeser has now referred the court ruling a large part in the current quarter have received back.


In connection with the sale of Siemens had scored in the second quarter of fiscal 2011, a positive contribution to earnings of 1.52 billion euros before taxes. The payment due to Areva is now recognized in income when the people of Munich in the third quarter of fiscal 2011.


"Risk was known"

"The penalty is to be considered negative, " analyst Karsten Oblinger noted by DZ Bank. "But the scale is limited, because the cash flow per share is only around 0.75 €. Moreover, the risk of a penalty in this amount was known." Therefore, he maintained his buy recommendation with a fair value of € 107.00.

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And Thomas Langer of WestLB upgraded the news negatively. He had adjusted his estimates for the third fiscal quarter accordingly. Positive he stressed however, that the Tribunal is the effectiveness of the measures provided for in the shareholders' agreement of the former joint venture competition ban has been halved to four years.