Friday, September 23, 2011

Germany: Dax goes roller coaster

Again today, investors need strong nerves, for the Dax put on a strong ascent and descent. The day shows how nervous investors are on.

Statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jens Weidmann and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble at the edge of the IMF annual meeting in Washington have supported the stock market in the afternoon. The Dax, who was still at lunch slipped below the 5,000 points, recovered significantly after that and ended trading after a strong ascent and descent with a daily gain of 0.63 percent at 5196 points. In the late business then moved slightly. The L / E-Dax closed at 5199 points. Weidmann had stressed that he believed a renewed recession was unlikely. "The situation is currently much better than the atmosphere," said Federal Reserve Chairman. In addition, the Federal Reserve chairman deems the capital adequacy of banks as significantly better than in 2008.

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Aswang 2011

Prior to the recent price slide was triggered by a communication from the French bank supervision. It requires 15-20 European banks strengthen their capital base. There were also reports that U.S. money market funds in August have drawn heavily from European funds, in particular, French banks.

But the continuing bad news about Greece provided for a bad mood. Thus, the rating agency Moody's credit ratings of eight Greek banks had more graded and provided with a "negative" outlook. At the same time there was speculation about internal testimony of the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, who is said to have first talked about an orderly restructuring of Greece with an average debt of 50 percent.

The Greek government denied these reports. At the same time closes the Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot a bust of Greece no longer sufficient.

The euro, meanwhile, knows not what he wants. He currently commutes to the mark of 1.35 dollars. Since Wednesday evening with the common currency has lost about four cents an unusually strong. Currency analysts expect that the pressure is maintained on the European single currency due to the debt crisis for now. The gold price is, however, remained under pressure, which experts attributed to the recent dollar strength. The price of an ounce dropped to 1,665 dollars, its lowest price since August.

DAX ®

5196.56 +32.35 +0.62%
GOLD USD / oz

1656.90-78.93-4.54%
In the morning, had a communique of the government of the 20 largest economies (G20) calmed the markets at first. The G20 has committed itself to ensure the stability of the banking system and financial markets. The central banks are willing to provide financial institutions with the necessary liquidity. In the course of the day commented on the IMF meeting many representatives from the financial policy, including members of the Governing Council.

"There is no law that allows such a thing"
Euro Bonds, cut debt, orderly bankruptcy - in connection with Greece's debt crisis circulating a plethora of terms. Meanwhile, a Greek national bankruptcy is no longer excluded. Even the Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, attracts now apparently considered a cut debts. But the fact is: So far, each frame is missing for not only legally. tagesschau.de summarizes the problems and presents solutions.

Oliver Field Forth, HR

There is a specter in Europe - it is the state of insolvency. Meanwhile, the Berlin coalition quarrels over whether Greece should not simply be allowed to fail. But nobody, not even on the government benches, really seems to know how that would work and what would be the concrete consequences of an insolvency of Greece.

The lack of rules


Görg administrator sees significant legal problems for bankruptcy in Greece.
Germany's most famous Klaus Hubert Görg Karstadt has saved a child with bankruptcy, at least for now. He sums it up perfectly: "A Bankruptcy is a government enforcement," he tells the magazine ARD Plus Minus, "and there is no parent under State law, thus allowing something."

To create this lack of rules, the EU treaties should be changed. But that would be boring indeed thicker boards. Angela Merkel has stressed time and again, it would need to at least two years. This period is realistic, says Christoph Schalast, Professor of Business and European Law at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management. Much faster a total bankruptcy plan was to have. This is an international agreement between Greece and the other euro countries. This could be a debt restructuring agree that is a partial waiver of the creditors. But, Schalast, it was necessary also to restructure the country, probably through a trust fund with a thirty year period. There also would require no withdrawal of the stricken country from the euro zone. It would be possible, but would have to be voluntary, says the lawyer.

Insolvency plan without contract modification possible


Also, the ECB could take on tasks as part of a bankruptcy plan.
How such a bankruptcy plan could be designed precisely, about the European "think tank" has been thinking Bruegel. In order to cope with a state of insolvency, which economists call from Brussels three instances: First, a judicial body - it would open the insolvency proceedings. This would be the European Court of Justice in question. In addition, an economic authority was required. You should carry out the bankruptcy, so the understanding reached between debtors and creditors. The European Commission could, ECB, but also reach private consultants. Finally, a financial authority was needed that would ensure in the transition period, the liquidity of Greece. That could lift the newly created European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

For all this, one of Greece exiting from the euro bond would not be necessary - to remain there for good reasons. The Greeks would get their drachma, but again they were internationally competitive. However, they were then finally overwhelmed with their remaining debt to be paid in euros.

New monetary policy rather than insolvency discussion?

Banking expert Professor Michael Grote looks but also still a chance to get out without €-exit and insolvency of Greece from the crisis. The debt would not be all that overwhelming problem, if Greece could participate in the really low interest rates in the euro area, so Grote. They could add a long-term construction and renovation plan to bring the Greeks back into the lane.

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